
Aug 10, 2026 · 8 min
How many trades a backtest needs to mean anything
Thirty trades cannot tell a winning system from a losing one. The arithmetic that sets your real sample size, and why every variant you tried raises it.
arthur

Thirty trades cannot tell a winning system from a losing one. The arithmetic that sets your real sample size, and why every variant you tried raises it.

The right way to use a frontier model in trading work is as a fast, well-read junior analyst — not as a principal making calls. The framing changes which prompts you write, which outputs you trust, and where the model's value actually lives.