May 18, 2026 · 11 min
Kevin Warsh takes the Fed: what to expect, what Powell did
Kevin Warsh sworn in as the 17th Fed chair, May 18 2026. His hawkish track record, what changes, what Powell leaves behind, and the issues on his desk.
arthur
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May 18, 2026latest
May 08, 2026 · 10 min
Is AI a bubble? The Nvidia-OpenAI circular revenue map
Nvidia funds OpenAI, OpenAI buys Nvidia chips, the stock lifts on the revenue. A walk through the AI circular revenue loop and what probably survives.
arthur
Apr 29, 2026 · 14 min
Reading the macro: how to actually use Fed minutes, NFP, and CPI without trading them
The retail temptation around Fed days, NFP, and CPI prints is to trade the spike. The pro move is to use macro events as context for restraint, and to model the second-order effects across asset classes. A framework, not a signal set.
arthur